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Investing Archives – Money Crashers

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2020 Year-in-Review: Stats, Budgets, Dog Power Rankings, and More

It’s been two years! Let’s look at my budget, my investments, the Best Interest’s growth, foster dog power rankings, and more!

Source: bestinterest.blog

Should You Keep Investing At All-Time Highs?

A note from a dedicated reader inspired today’s article. It’s a question about the stock market and investing at all-time highs. It reads:

Hey Jesse. So, back in March you said that you were going to keep on investing despite the major crash. Fair enough, good call!

Note: here and here are the two articles that likely inspired this comment

But now that the market has recovered and is in an obvious bubble (right?), are you still dumping money into the market?

Thanks for the note, and great questions. You might have heard “buy low, sell high.” That’s how you make money when investing. So, if the prices are at all-time highs, you aren’t exactly “buying low,” right?

I’m going to address this question in three different ways.

  1. General ideas about investing
  2. Back-testing historical data
  3. Identifying and timing a bubble

Long story short: yes, I am still “dumping” money into the stock market despite all-time highs. But no, I’m not 100% that I’m right.

General Ideas About Investing

We all know that that investing markets ebb and flow. They goes up and down. But, importantly, the stock market has historically gone up more than it has gone down.

Why does this matter? I’m implementing an investing plan that is going to take decades to fulfill. Over those decades, I have faith that the average—the trend—will present itself. That average goes up. I’m not betting on individual days, weeks, or months. I’m betting on decades.

It feels bad to invest right before the market crashes. I wouldn’t enjoy that. But I’m not worried about the value of my investments one month from now. I’m worried about where they’ll be in 20+ years.

Stock Market Crash GIFs | Tenor

Allowing short-term emotions—e.g. fear of an impending crash—to cloud long-term, math-based thinking is the nadir of result-oriented thinking. Don’t do it.

Don’t believe me? Here’s a fun idea. Google the term “should I invest at all-time highs?”

When I do that, I see articles written in 2016, 2017, 2018…you get it. People have been asking this question for quite a while. All-time highs have happened before, and they beg the question of whether it’s smart to invest. Here’s the S&P 500 data from 2016 to today.

S&P 500 – Past five years. Punctuation my own addition.

So should you have invested in 2016? In 2017? In 2018? While those markets were at or near all-time highs, the resounding answer is YES! Investing in those all-time high markets was a smart thing to do.

Let’s go further back. Here’s the Dow Jones going back to the early 1980s. Was investing at all-time highs back then a good idea?

I’ve cherry-picked some data, but the results would be convincing no matter what historic window I chose. Investing at all-time highs is still a smart thing to do if you have a long-term plan.

Investing at all-time highs isn’t that hard when you have a long outlook.

But let’s look at some hard data and see how the numbers fall out.

Historical Backtest for Investing at All-Time Highs

There’s a well-written article at Of Dollars and Data that models what I’m about to do: Even God Couldn’t Beat Dollar-Cost Averaging.

But if you don’t have the time to crunch all that data, I’m going to describe the results of a simple investing back-test below.

First, I looked at a dollar-cost averager. This is someone who contributes a steady investment at a steady frequency, regardless of whether the market is at an all-time high or not. This is how I invest! And it might be how you invest via your 401(k). The example I’m going to use is someone who invests $100 every week.

Then I looked at an “all-time high avoider.” This is someone who refuses to buy stocks at all-time highs, saving their cash for a time when the stock market dips. They’ll take $100 each week and make a decision: if the market is at an all-time high, they’ll save the money for later. If the market isn’t at an all-time high, they’ll invest all their saved money.

The article from Of Dollars and Data goes one step further, if you’re interested. It presents an omniscient investor who has perfect timing, only investing at the lowest points between two market highs. This person, author Nick Maggiulli comments, invests like God would—they have perfect knowledge of prior and future market values. If they realize that the market will be lower in the future, they save their money for that point in time.

What are the results?

The dollar-cost averager outperformed the all-time high avoider in 82% of all possible 30-year investing periods between 1928 and today. And the dollar-cost averager outperformed “God” in ~70% of the scenarios that Maggiulli analyzed.

How can the dollar-cost averager beat God, since God knows if there will be a better buying opportunity in the future? Simple answer: dividends and compounding returns. Unless you have impeccable—perhaps supernatural—timing, leaving your money on the sidelines is a poor choice.

Investing at all-time highs is where the smart money plays.

Identifying and Timing a Bubble

One of my favorite pieces of finance jargon is the “permabear.” It’s a portmanteau of permanent and bear, as in “this person is always claiming that the market is overvalued and that a bubble is coming.”

Being a permabear has one huge benefit. When a bubble bursts—and they always do, eventually—the permabear feels righteous justification. See?! I called it! Best Interest reader Craig Gingerich jokingly knows bears who have “predicted 16 of the last 3 recessions.”

Source: advisorperspectives.com

Suffice to say, it’s common to look at the financial tea leaves and see portents of calamity. But it’s a lot harder to be correct, and be correct right now. Timing the market is hard.

Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves.

Peter Lynch

Predicting market recessions falls somewhere between the Farmers’ Almanac weather forecast and foreseeing the end of the world. It takes neither skill nor accuracy but instead requires a general sense of pattern recognition.

Note: The Farmers’ Almanac thinks that next April will be rainy. Nice work, guys. And I, too, think the world will end—at least at some point in the next few billions of years.

I have neither the skill nor the inclination to identify a market bubble or to predict when it’ll burst. And if someone convinces you they do have that skill, you have two options. They might be skilled. Or they are interested in your bank account. Use Occam’s Razor.

Just remember: some permabears were screaming “SELL!” in late March 2020. I’ve always heard “buy low, sell high.” But maybe selling your portfolio at the absolute market bottom is the new secret technique?

“But…just look at the market”

I get it. I hear you. And I feel it, too. If feels like something funny is going on.

The stock market is 12% higher than it was a year ago. It’s higher than it was before the COVID crash. How is this possible? How can we be in a better place mid-pandemic than before the pandemic?

Crazy Pills GIFs | Tenor

One explanation: the U.S. Federal Reserve has dropped their interest rates to, essentially, zero. Lower interest rates make it easier to borrow money, and borrowing money is what keeps businesses alive. It’s economic life support.

Of course, a side effect of cheap interest rates is that some investors will dump their cheap money into the stock market. The increasing demand for stocks will push the price higher. So, despite no increase (and perhaps even a decrease) in the intrinsic value of the underlying publicly-traded companies, the stock market rises.

Is that a bubble? Quite possibly. But I’m not smart enough to be sure.

The CAPE ratio—also called the Shiller P/E ratio—is another sign of a possible bubble. CAPE stands for cyclically-adjusted price-to-earnings. It measures a stock’s price against that company’s earnings over the previous 10-years (i.e. it’s adjusted for multiple business cycles).

Earnings help measure a company’s true value. When the CAPE is high, it’s because a stock’s price is much greater than its earnings. In other words, the price is too high compared to the company’s true value.

Buying when the CAPE is high is like paying $60K for a Honda Civic. It doesn’t mean that a Civic is a bad car. It’s just that you shoudn’t pay $60,000 for it.

Similarly, nobody is saying that Apple is a bad company, but its current CAPE is 52. Try to find a CAPE of 52 on the chart above. You won’t find it.

So does it make sense to buy total market index funds when the total market is at a CAPE of 31? That’s pretty high, and comparable to historical pre-bubble periods. Is a high CAPE representative of solid fundamentals? Probably not, but I’m not sure.

My Shoeshine Story

There’s an apocryphal tale of New York City shoeshines giving stock-picking advice to their customers…who happened to be stockbrokers. Those stockbrokers took this as a sign of an oncoming financial apocalypse.

The thought process was: if the market was so popular that shoe shines were giving advice, then the market was overbought. The smart money, therefore, should sell.

I recently heard a co-worker talking about his 12-year old son. The kid uses Robin Hood—a smartphone app that boasts free trades to its users. Access to the stock market has never been easier.

According to his dad, the kid bought about $100 worth of Advanced Micro Devices (ticker = AMD). When asked what AMD produces, the kid said, “I don’t know. I just know they’re up 60%!”

This, an expert might opine, is not indicative of market fundamentals.

But then I thought some more. Is this how I invest? What does your index fund hold, Jesse? Well…a lot of companies I’ve never heard of. I just know it averages ~10% gains every year! My answer is eerily similar.

I’d like to believe that I buy index funds based on fundamentals that have been justified by historical precedent. But, what if the entire market’s fundamentals are out of whack? I’m buying a little bit of everything, sure. But what if everything is F’d up?

Closing Thoughts

Have you ever seen a index zealot transmogrify into a permabear?

Not yet. Not today.

I do understand why some warn of a bubble. I see the same omens. But I don’t have the certainty or the confidence to act on omens. It’s like John Bogle said in the face of market volatility:

Don’t do something. Just stand there.

John Bogle

Markets go up and down. The U.S. stock market might crash tomorrow, next week, or next year. Amidst it all, my plan is to keep on investing. Steady amounts, steady frequency. I’ve got 20+ years to wait.

History says investing at all-time highs is still a smart thing. Current events seem crazy, but crazy has happened before. Stay the course, friends.

And, as always, thanks for reading the Best Interest. If you enjoyed this article and want to read more, I’d suggest checking out my Archive or Subscribing to get future articles emailed to your inbox.

This article—just like every other—is supported by readers like you.

Source: bestinterest.blog

Webull Review 2020: Investing Power in Your Pocket

This page may include affiliate links. Please see the disclosure page for more information. Webull believes that everyone should have an equal opportunity to control their financial future, and with their app, you can do just that. Let’s dig into our Webull review. What is Webull? It’s an iOS and Android online stock trading app that incorporates…

The post Webull Review 2020: Investing Power in Your Pocket appeared first on Debt Discipline.


Webull Review 2020: Investing Power in Your Pocket was first posted on September 17, 2020 at 6:30 am.
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How to Invest: A Basic Guide to Making Your Money Grow

Investing is more than just saving for the future — it’s about creating a wealth-building strategy to truly make your nest egg grow. That’s because investing typically earns you a higher interest rate than if…

The post How to Invest: A Basic Guide to Making Your Money Grow appeared first on Crediful.

Source: crediful.com

4 Easy Ways To Get Started With Real Estate Investing

If you’ve never considered real estate investing because you don’t want to own rental properties or be a landlord, you may want to look at these options.

The post 4 Easy Ways To Get Started With Real Estate Investing appeared first on Bible Money Matters and was written by Marc. Copyright © Bible Money Matters – please visit biblemoneymatters.com for more great content.

Source: biblemoneymatters.com

Ally Invest Review 2021 (Formerly TradeKing) | Pros, Cons, Tools & More

Thinking about moving your investments to a newer, modern online investment brokerage? Get a sneak peek into the new Ally Invest platform, brought to you by Ally Bank and TradeKing.

Source: goodfinancialcents.com

How to Invest in Gold

Confusion and uncertainty will always be a part of investing’s rollercoaster ride. Whenever the market experiences a downward trend, the demand for gold increases as people seek out “safe” investments. According to the World Gold Council, the price for gold during the first quarter of 2020 shot up to almost its highest point in the past 10 years. 

Gold is a different beast from most other investments. Generally, when there’s a lot of fear about where the future is heading — when stocks do poorly and gold does well.

However, gold is also a physical product that you own completely. But it also doesn’t produce anything of value on its own. For these reasons, it’s a riskier investment and requires special considerations.

Why Invest in Gold?

If you’re worried about the economy (and even society) tanking, gold is an touted investment option. It’s considered a “safe-haven investment” because when the stock market sinks, the gold market sails steadily on, often even increasing in value. When the stock market rises, though, gold doesn’t gain much value. 

This likely occurs because of the unique nature of gold compared to more traditional investments. Unlike a share in a company (i.e., a stock), gold doesn’t produce anything. It doesn’t hire employees, pay taxes, or contribute anything aside from being a shiny object that people like. 

Its value comes from what we give it, and when we’re afraid of economic factors, we value it a lot. After all, in a post-apocalyptic world you might be able to trade gold for things you need to survive, whereas a stock share would be useless.

Generally, when there’s a lot of fear about where the future is heading — when stocks do poorly and gold does well.

That’s not to say that we should all be investing in gold, however. It’s far more likely that things will chug along as normal, in which case, gold is a bit of a hassle at best. Your money likely won’t grow as fast if you hold gold versus stocks. 

If you own physical gold, you’ll have to professionally store it and insure it. And if you don’t want to bother with physical gold, you’ll need to suss out the pros and cons of other gold alternatives, like gold ETFs and gold cryptocurrencies. 

Pros Cons
-Holds value (or grows) during a recession
-Gives you real, tangible wealth
-Might be able to barter gold for goods and services in difficult times
-Gold alternatives allow you to invest in gold without actually storing it
-Doesn’t grow much wealth in a robust economy
-Requires storage and safety solutions
-Can be lost or stolen
-Gold alternatives can be confusing and complicated
-Doesn’t produce anything of value on its own

How to Invest in Gold

There are actually a lot of different ways to invest in gold. Depending on your goals, some are better than others. 

Gold IRAs

Since gold is primarily a wealth-preservation tool you might be interested in investing in it as a part of your retirement strategy. The good news is you’re not the first person to have this idea and there are ways to do it. The bad news is it’s not as simple as plopping some money in your brokerage account, and there are only a few places to do it.

Orion Metal Exchange is one example of a place where you can invest in gold within an IRA.You can even roll over funds from an existing IRA into a Gold IRA. 

Another place you can invest in gold within an IRA is Patriot.

You do get actual gold with this strategy so you’ll need to store it inside of an independent third-party vault. Orion Metal Exchange offers suggestions for where to store it, and can help walk you through the process of opening a gold IRA. 

Gold Futures Options

As a rule, trading in futures of anything isn’t a strategy for new investors, and that’s true for gold too. When you invest in gold futures contracts, you’re betting on whether the market will go up or down rather than buying the actual gold itself — and that requires a deep level of knowledge about how the gold market works. 

You agree to buy a certain amount of gold at a predetermined time in the future for a predetermined price. Most investors sell the contracts themselves before it actually comes time to buy the gold, however. 

If you thoroughly understand the process — and that’s not an easy feat — you could rake in a lot of money. You can also leverage your existing cash to magnify your returns far beyond your initial investment amount.

Since this is such an advanced and risky strategy, there aren’t that many markets where you can buy and sell contracts in gold futures. 

Physical Gold 

The most obvious and probably most popular way to invest in gold is simply to buy it. But you need to buy the right kind of gold. 

Many people think that buying jewelry is a good investment, but this is usually not the case.The additional labor and materials involved in making jewelry can actually result in a melted-down gold value that isn’t as high as the cost of the jewelry itself. To the untrained eye most collectable coins are also poor investments, because they’re often made of a gold veneer or alloy material. 

Instead, most gold investors recommend buying gold bullion, which is a defined amount of pure gold with its weight stamped right on it. Bullion can come as a gold bar or as coins. Bullion coins are easier to store, parcel apart, sell (how would you sell half a brick of gold?), and they’re easier to buy over time with a dollar-cost averaging approach. 

Some things that are important to remember when investing in gold:

  • Know what you’re buying — is it pure gold? What’s its weight? What’s its value?
  • Insure your gold in case of fire, theft, or some other disaster
  • Buy gold from a reputable dealer like Oxford Gold Group, Lear Capital or Goldco
  • Use safe storage, either in a safe deposit box at the bank, or an off-site vault like with Norman Sellers

Gold Mining Stocks

Aside from melting down family heirlooms, the only way more gold is being put into production is by mining it. By investing in gold mining stocks, you don’t have to worry about physically storing and securing your own gold. But you can still own a share of the companies that mine gold. 

Gold mining stocks are a risk on their own, too. Mining, in general, isn’t great for the environment, so many gold mines are located in countries with lax environmental regulations. These tend to be less-developed countries, where wars and civil unrest are more widespread. This can be a big risk for your stock strategy; if you get unlucky and the company you invested in has a major mine collapse with negative PR, for example, your stock value could tank. 

Gold ETFs

If you still want to invest in gold extraction, but don’t want the hassle of vetting individual companies, investing in a gold ETF can be a good option. 

Like investing in regular ETFs, gold ETFs are essentially a basket of different gold mining stocks rather than individual mining companies. This also spreads your risk across multiple companies so that you’re not betting on a single horse. SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) is one of the most popular gold ETFs on the market today. 

Invest in Gold Through Crypto 

You can actually blend old-world investment strategies with new-world ones by investing in the PAX Gold (PAXG) cryptocurrency. Gold is notoriously expensive to even start purchasing (the current price as of this writing is $1,913 per ounce), and PAXG offers a big advantage because you can get started for just a hundredth of a troy ounce, or about $20. 

You don’t get your own pieces of gold when you buy PAXG but it is linked to “allocated” gold. This means that each PAXG token is linked to a physical piece of gold, with your name on it, in a storage vault. In this way it’s similar to how the U.S. dollar was originally backed by gold before becoming fiat currency (i.e., not linked to actual gold in a vault). 

One of the general disadvantages of investing in gold is that you can’t earn any interest on it like with a bank account. Unless, of course, you open a Blockfi account to store your PAXG, which pays out interest and even lets you borrow against your digital wallet. 

The Bottom Line

Gold is a specialized investment that’s often overhyped. Still, it might still have a legitimate (if small) place in your portfolio. To know if investing in gold is right for you — and if so, which option — we recommend speaking with a financial advisor. 

Even if you’re a pro and feel ready for complicated gold futures contracts, it’s still a good idea to sit down for a chat with an impartial third party. It’s a good way to double-check your investment plans, lest you catch a case of shiny-object syndrome and get too carried away. 

The post How to Invest in Gold appeared first on Good Financial Cents®.

Source: goodfinancialcents.com

Can You Lose Money with Trading Apps?

What steps can I take to protect my money when using a trading app? How do people lose money with trading apps?

The post Can You Lose Money with Trading Apps? appeared first on The Dough Roller.

Source: doughroller.net

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